Monday, May 4, 2020
Technology Essay Introduction Example For Students
Technology Essay Introduction Technology PaperIntroductionWhen mainframe and minicomputers providedthe backbone of business computing, there were essentially networked environmentsin the sense that dumb terminals shared access to a single processor(the minicomputer or mainframe), printer (or printers) and other peripheraldevices. Files could be shared among users because they were storedon the same machine. Electrical and operational connections wereavailable in common and shared applications, and implementation of newhardware, software and users was a simple task so long as a single vendorwas used. With the proliferation of microcomputers in the businessenvironment, information became distributed, located on the various harddrives attached to personal computers in an office, and difficult for otherusers to access. Today, network systems which connect disparate hardware,software and peripherals are commonplace, but the communication programwhich makes using these systems has not kept up with the demand for suchen vironments, although a number of companies are now participating in thefield. This research considers two of the most popular network operatingsystems (NOS), NetWare by Novell and Windows NT by Microsoft, and considerswhich is appropriate for business applications. Network Operating SystemsOperating systems are the interface betweenindividual programs and the user. Through the operating system, theuser is able to name files, move them and otherwise manipulate them, andissue commands to the computer as to what the user wants to do. Networkoperating systems are similar to this, but exist (as the name implies)in the network environment. Thus a network operating system is usedto issue commands to shared devices, and to provide a background againstwhich scarce resources are divided among competing users. Ideally,the network operating system is transparent to the user, who is only awareof the ability to share information and resources. An efficient NOScan make the difference between a productive and an unproductive office,and between workers who are difficult to replace when they leave and thosewho are likely to be familiar with the NOS of choice. Despite their importance, network operatingsystems have faced challenges in the market because of the diverse hardwarerequirements that they must meet. Because of this, several differentoperating systems have been developed, some of which run in place of traditional(single-user) operating systems, and some of which run in addition to thesesystems. OS/2, for example, provides a multi-user environment withoutrequiring a separate operating system. NOS development gained widespread acceptancewhen companies such as Artisoft (which manufactures Lantastic) introducedclient software which worked with a variety of servers. This madesoftware manufactured by companies such as Novell (which required specialclient-side networking software) vulnerable, and Microsofts Windows 95quickly became the client software of choice in the market (although notalways among analysts) when it was introduced since it can interface witha number of different server systems with complete transparency to theuser. This is the same concept used to develop OS/2 Warp Connect. Comparison CriteriaBecause of the current state of the market,having 32-bit capability is a requirement in most network environments. The various NOS alternatives need to offer a strong file and print base,since that is how most users access and use the networks. Applicationservices, which includes the ability to run messaging, database, and otherserver-based applications efficiently in a client/server network is anessential requirement of most modern networks. Multiprocessor supportis an essential component, as is fault tolerance, high-quality developmenttools, and application support from third-party vendors. Hardware integration is also a key issuesince the NOS should be able to run on hardware which is readily availableat reasonable rates, and which is likely to continue to be available inthe future. Both the type of processor and the ability to use morethan one processor are important considerations in this regard. Arelated issue is the networking infrastructure, which includes the easeof use of the network transfer protocols and how well the server softwareprocesses multiple LAN adapters and internal routing. Should the united states end drug prohibition EssayWindows NTWhen it comes to application services,Windows NT Server offers strong support for multiple as well as non-Intelprocessors along with abundant APIs, and applications from third-partyapplication vendors. In addition, Windows NT uses a domain namingand security setup. Similar to the naming service offered by Novell,the domain system gives users easy access to the network, but only afteran exchange of verification information takes place between domain serversthat trust each other. Windows NT servers are make using theInternet Protocol (IP) easier than NetWare does; IP carries the favoritesorting tags of the powerful Internet working routers, while NetWare IPXdoes not convey all of the routing information of IP. The situationhas improved, however, now that NetWare provides NetWare/IP. RecognizingNovells strong presence in the NOS market, Microsoft has also adoptedNovells network transport protocol, IPX/SPX, yielding software flexibilityon servers and extended options in extensions to the network. Microsoft Windows NT Server 3.51 offersa combination of good file and print capabilities, excellent applicationservices, and optional messaging, database, mainframe connectivity, andmanagement applications contained in Microsofts BackOffice applicationssuite. The products that make up Microsoft BackOffice integrate wellwith one another and with the Windows NT Server to provide many of thefunctions a network operating environment needs. However, Windows NT Server lacks powerfulnaming services. Windows NT Servers naming services are based on domains,each of which can contain only one defined organization. It is possibleto link domains so that users in one domain can easily access the filesand services of another. However, the process of setting up and managingthese links is more complex and cumbersome than working with NetWare. ConclusionBecause of the way in which network operatingsystems are currently written, and because of the strengths and weaknessesof NetWare and Windows NT, neither solution is the appropriate solutionfor every type of business or every type of network environment. Instead, the type of environment in which the NOS will be placed determinesthe correct product. If the organization is using a local network onlyto store word processing and spreadsheet files and to print, theneither NetWare or Windows NT offers a reasonable alternative as the NOSof choice since both handle these functions with ease. If the system includes a number of geographiclocations and information and requests for functions is passed among sophisticatedapplications, a richer and more robust environment is needed. A numberof organizations have turned to combining network operating systems inorder to support these more sophisticated needs. In these situations,the users gain the strengths of both systems while eliminating their weaknesses(the domain dependence of Windows NT, for example). BibliographyDryden, Patrick. Server Tune-UpHelps NT, NetWare Efficiency. Computerworld, November 11, 1996, 65-66. Microsoft Support. http://www.microsoft.com/support/. Newman, David and David Hurd. SMP:Expect the Unexpected. Data Communications, 21 March 1996, 56-63. Stanczak, Mark. NetWare, NT Server Command-Central.PC Week, 15 January 1996, N1-N2. __________. NOSes Challenge the Powerof Next-Generation Hardware. PC Week, 1 April 1996, 75-76. Support. http://support.novell.com. Surkan, Michael. NetWare SMP Cant KeepUp with the Competition. PC Week, 1 April 1996, 78. Vaughan-Nichols, Steven J. Web-ServerBeats Novells NetWare Entry in Both Versatility and Capacity. Byte, May1996, 113-115.
Monday, March 30, 2020
WomenS Rights In 3Rd World Countries Essays - Gender Studies
Women'S Rights In 3Rd World Countries There was a young woman who left her home in Mycrorayan in Kabul, Afghanistan for Peshawar after the January 1994 fighting and told Amnesty International of the following situation. One day when my father was walking past a building complex he heard screams of women coming from an apartment block which had just been captured by forces of General Dostum. He was told by the people that Dostum's guards had entered the block and were looting the property and raping the women. The following story comes out of Iran. On August 10, 1994, in the city of Arak, Iran, a woman was sentenced to death by stoning. According to the ruling of the religious judge, her husband and two children were forced to attend the execution. The woman urged her husband to take the children away, but to no avail. A truck full of stones was brought in to be used during the stoning. In the middle of the stoning, although her eyes had been gouged out, the victim was able to escape from the ditch and started running away, but the regime's guards recaptured her and shot her to death. From China comes the following observation. Still in the streets an occasional old crone hobbling around on her miniature bound feet was a relic of the pre-Revolutionary, almost dead past. I also heard an echo of that past in a silk thread factory in Wuxi, China. A woman member of its Revolutionary Committee was introduced to me as a ?veteran worker'. The description astonished me because she looked so young. On inquiry I learned that she was indeed only 34 years old, but that she had toiled in the mill for twenty-six years, having begun this job as an 8-year old child.? These three incidents reflect typical crimes and injustices against women in the Third World countries. Crimes against women include abuse, slavery, false imprisonment, murder and rape. In these countries, women are considered to be inferior to men and are not granted equal rights or protection under the laws. The governments, religions and cultures of these countries support the inequalities, thus allowing vicious crimes against women to continue without any recourse by the victims. The phrase ?women's rights? refers to the basic human rights that are withheld from women simply because they are women. Women's rights promote political, social and economic equality for women in a society that traditionally confers more status and freedom to men. A basic right is for girls to grow up to be women: today twelve percent of the females born worldwide are missing, many of them victims of infanticide. Other women's rights include: the right to live free of physical abuse, the right to live f ree of sexual exploitation, the right to health care and nutrition, the right to an acceptable standard of living, the right to chose her own partner, the right to vote, the right to control property, and the right to equal treatment before the law along with freedom of speech. Women in Third World countries do not have the rights that American women enjoy. In most of these countries, women do not even have rights equivalent to those of American women in the nineteenth century. For example, the women have arranged marriages, have very limited access to education and are abused by their arranged husbands. In these countries, women work twice as many hours as men for one-tenth of the income. The inequities vary from country to country, but one thing is in common; the inequalities are all being committed against women. This paper will explore the condition of women in three Third World Countries: Afghanistan, China and Iran. Afghanistan They shot my father right in front of me. He was a shopkeeper. It was nine o'clock at night. They came to our house and told him they had orders to kill him because he allowed me to go to school. The Mujahideen had already stopped me from going to school, but that was not enough. They then came and killed my father. I cannot describe what they did to me after killing my father. (15-year-old girl, p. 10) This is the story of a 15 year old girl who
Saturday, March 7, 2020
The world imagined and the world discovered essays
The world imagined and the world discovered essays In 1498, the Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama sailed with four ships from Europe to reach India. Because of the cold weather, the sailors could not prepare food. They went to Africa and collected all they needed and finally reached India and saw the flock of amazed citizens watching their Western ships. Europeans traded goods such as silks, fine carpets, pottery, and precious jewels from India and China. They were interested in cloves, cinnamon, coriander, and pepper that were particularly found in the East. The warfare of 1400s in Eastern Europe and Asia disabled the Europeans to travel over land. They found new trade routes to get to East Asia. Venetian explorer Marco Polo believed that Japan was 1,500 miles east of China and he exaggerated descriptions of the eastern lands such as dog-headed humans and headless people. These exaggerations were later proved wrong by the explorers. Ptolemys worldview was divided into 360 degrees of longitude. As well, it consisted of three continen ts Asia, Africa, and Europe and two oceans the Indian Ocean and the Western Ocean. He also said that land covered three-fourths of earths surface. His miscalculations, including earths size being one-sixth smaller than its usual size, were forgotten through vast knowledge. European rulers and explorers were desperate for money and Eastern goods. Since, in 1453, the conquest of Constantinople increased the price of the spices and goods, it put the already poor Western Europe into large devastation. They regained wealth by hiring people to hunt new wealth. The explorers not only wanted to find new land and wealth, but also wanted to spread their religion and to practice their religion in their own land. The Catholics sent converts to other places and the Protestants practiced their faith in new lands Europeans gained faith along with fame and fortune across the miles. Navigation tools such as the as ...
Thursday, February 20, 2020
To what extent should the financial reporting practices of public Essay
To what extent should the financial reporting practices of public sector organizations differ from those used by companies in the private sector - Essay Example Hence the financial accounting system is to be very strict to ensure the uniform justice. Making them profit driven is crucial for the whole nation as will add further to the gross domestic product of the country and for generating higher employment. In addition the reforms in public sector are needed for following factors which also decide the style of financial reporting in public enterprises. The financial reporting analysis studies indicated that majority private firms get involved in cost reduction activities and hence their efficiency is higher and hence public sector can follow this by implementing cost reduction measures with out affecting the social objectives. Matsumari and Matsushima (2004) conducted an investigation on mixed duopoly, in which a public enterprise with social objectives competes with a profit-maximizing private firm. The use of a Hotelling-type spatial model helped them in product differentiation. Similarly the production costs were reduced by following cost-reducing activities. It was also noticed that the private firms engage in excessive strategic cost-reducing activities and hence their production cost becomes lower than the public firm. It was also felt that privatization of the loss making public firms will result in reducing the operational losses and converting them in to profit making enterprises. The second factor that is to be kept in mind is that the source of funds for the public sector is from the public mainly where as the source of funding in private sector is from private individuals. Hence the public sector enterprises should be held highly responsible for the financial performance. It does not mean that the private sector should be neglected but it suggests that the private sector needs a separate style of financial reporting system. The users and stakeholders are another crucial
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
Survey of a Public Building Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words
Survey of a Public Building - Essay Example It is said that the building was presided by one Tower 42 and surpassed by the Shard London Bridge. The cost of the building then is said to have been ? 500 million (London Architecture, 2012). During the construction of the building, some prominent personalities were of the contrary opinion with the then prime minister Margret Thatcher opposing its construction. I. Identify and comment on the structure and construction of the various components, which make up the primary and secondary elements associated with your chosen building. From 1991 to 2010, one Canada square remained the tallest building in the city of London with 50 storey floors (Emporis, 2012). The with such magnificent features the building involved high level engineering works given the nature of the building in terms of height and the weight. The building utilized almost 16,000 pieces of steel used to constitute the exterior cladding and the structural frames of the building. Within the floor of the building, there is the composite construction that consists of the compact steel core that also involved the perimeter columns that surrounds the outer perimeter. 130 feet pyramid weighing 11 tons is also used to for the capping of the building (39.6 meters) (London Architecture, 2012). The building also prides of being the first to be clad in stainless steel. In this regard, the building consumed approximately 370,000 of the material Pattern Hyclad Cambric in square feet. The material is used to clad the entire building. The weight in metric tones that is used to make the building is 27,000 metric tons of steel reinforced by over 500,000 bolts (London Architecture, 2012). This is in the consideration of the whole building. There is also the lobby clad that is used in the building. The lobby clad is 11 meters (36 feet) high and about 90,000 square feet origin of the marble were imported from two countries Guatemala and Italy in the construction of the building (London Architecture, 2012). The buildin gââ¬â¢s foundation was reinforced with a number of stainless steel with motor and concretes to provide firm support for the buildings enormous weight. The stainless steels used in the building were all bolted for the required firmness of the building. Further protection of the steel was achieved by the use of mortar in-fill. The buildings floor area is 28,000 square feet. The building also has installed at the top a pyramid. The building is capable of handling about 108, 000 deliveries in a single year. Aircraft warning are also fitted in the building and flashes 40 times every minute (NCE, 2012). The picture above shows a cross section of the architectural design of the buildingââ¬â¢s wall, the position of the stainless steel used in the building can be seen in the figure. The integrated composite construction that constitute the floor and the steels that forms part of the wall were designed in such a manner to provide proper anchorage of the building owing to the mass of the materials used in the building and that of the pyramid at the top. The use of stainless steel was to provide the required strength and to eliminate the possibility of corrosion in the building. The steels connection are all done by use of fastening bolts for the provision of extra support. II. Give consideration to the period and date of the construction, the type of the dwelling, its expected design life at the time of construction and the state of its structural
Monday, January 27, 2020
Literature Review on Volatility
Literature Review on Volatility Literature Review What is Volatility? Volatility is defined as the spread of all likely outcomes of an uncertain variable (Poon, 2005). Statistically, it is often measured as the sample standard deviation (as seen below), but can also be measured by variance. Where rt = return on day t, and ÃŽà ¼ = average return over the T-day period. The common misconception is to equate volatility to risk. However, whilst volatility is related to risk, it is not the same. Risk represents an undesirable outcome, whilst volatility is a measure for uncertainty that could arise from a positive outcome. Furthermore, volatility as a measure for the spread of a distribution contains no information on the shape, this represents another reason for volatility being an imperfect measure for risk. The sole exception to this being a normal distribution or lognormal distribution where mean and standard deviation are appropriate statistics for the whole distribution (Poon, 2005). In dealing with volatility as a subject matter in financial markets, the focus is on the spread of asset returns. High volatility is generally undesirable as it indicates security values are unreliable and capital markets arent functioning efficiently (Poon, 2005; Figlewski, 1997). Financial market volatility has been the subject of much research and the number of studies continues to rise since Poon and Granger (2003)s original survey first identified 93 papers in the field. A whole host of drivers for volatility have been explored (including political events, macroeconomic factors and investors behavior) in an attempt to better capture volatility and decrease risk (Poon, 2005). This study will add to that list, hoping to contribute something novel to the field by scrutinizing the appropriateness of different volatility models for different country indexes. The Importance of Volatility Forecasting Investment strategies, Portfolio Optimization and Asset Valuation Volatility when taken as uncertainty transforms into an important component in a wide range of financial applications including Investment strategies for trading or hedging, Portfolio optimization and Asset price valuation. The Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952), Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe, 1964) and Sharpe ratio (Sharpe 1966) signify three cornerstones for optimal decision-making and measurement of performance, advocating a focus on the risk-return interrelationship with volatility taken as a risk proxy. With Investors and portfolio managers having limits as to the risk they can bear, accurate forecasts of the volatility of asset prices for long-term horizons is necessary to reliably assess investment risk. Such forecasts allow investors to be better informed and hold stocks for longer rather than constantly reallocating their portfolio in reaction to movements in prices; an often expensive exercise in general (Poon and Granger, 2003). In terms of st ock price valuation French, et al. (1987) analyse NYSE common stocks for the period of 1928-1984 and find expected market risk premium to be positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns, which is further strengthened by the indirect relationship between stock market returns and the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. Derivatives pricing Volatility is a key element in Modern option pricing theory that enables estimation of the fair value of options and other derivative instruments. According to Poon and Granger (2003) the trading volume of derivative securities had quadrupled in the recent years leading up to their research and since then this growth has accelerated with the global derivatives market now estimated to be around $544 Trillion excluding credit default swaps and commodity contracts (BIS, 2017). As one of five input variables (including Stock Price, Strike price, time to maturity and risk-free interest rate), expected volatility over the options life in the Black-Scholes model theorized by Black and Scholes (1973) is crucially also the only variable that is not directly observable and must be forecast (Figlewski, 1997). Implied volatility and realized volatility can be computed by referencing observed market prices for options and historical data. Whilst the former is attractive for requiring little input data and delivering excellent results when analysed in some empirical studies compared to time series models utilizing just historical information, it is deficient by not having a firm statistical basis and different strike prices yielding different implied volatilities creating confusion over which implied volatility to use (Tse, 1991; Poon, 2005). Lengthening maturities of derivative instruments also weakens the assumption that volatility realized in the recent past can be used as a fairly reliable proxy for volatility in the near future. (Figlewski, 1997). With recent developments, derivatives written on volatility can now also be purchased whereby volatility represents the underlying asset, thus further necessitating volatility forecasting practices (Poon and Granger, 2003). Financial Risk Management Volatility forecasting plays a significant role in Financial Risk Management of the finance and banking industries. The practice aids in estimation of value-at-risk (VaR), a measure introduced by the Basel Committee in 1996 through an amendment to the Basel Accords (an international standard for minimum capital requirement among international banks to safeguard against various risks). Whilst many risks are examined within, volatility forecasting is most relevant for Market risk and VaR. However, calculating VaR is necessary only if banks choose to adopt its own internal proprietary model for calculating market risk related capital requirement. By choosing to do so, there is greater flexibility for banks in specifying model parameters but with an attached condition of regular backtesting of the internal model. Apart from banks, other financial institutions may also use VaR voluntarily for internal risk management purposes. (Poon and Granger 2003; Poon 2005) Christoffersen and Diebold (2000) do however contend the limits of relevance of Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management, arguing that for reliable forecastablity much depends on whether the horizon of interest is of a short term or long-term nature (taken to be more than 10 or 20 days) with the practice deemed more relevant for the former than the latter due to the limitations in forecastability. Policymaking Financial market volatility can have wide-reaching consequences on economies. As an example, large recessions create ambiguity and hinder public confidence. To counter such negative impacts and disruptions, policy makers utilize market estimates of volatility as a means for identifying the vulnerability of financial markets, equipping them with more reliable and complete information with which to respond with appropriate policies. (Poon and Granger, 2003) The Federal Reserve of the United States is one such entity that incorporates volatility of various financial instruments into its monetary policy decision-making (Nasar, 1991). Bernanke and Gertler (2000) explore the degree to which implications of asset price volatility impact monetary policy decision-making. A side-by-side comparison of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy is the basis of the study. The researchers find that inflation-targeting is desirable, however, monetary policy decisions based on changes in asset prices should only be made to the extent that such changes help to forecast inflationary or deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Bomfim (2003) investigates the relationship between monetary policy and stock market volatility from the other perspective. Interest rate policy decisions that carry an element of surprise appear to increase short run, stock market volatility significantly with positive surprises also having a greater effect than negative surprises. Empirical stylized facts of asset returns and volatility Any attempt to model volatility appropriately must be done with an understanding of the common, recurring set of properties identified from numerous empirical studies carried out across financial instruments, markets and time periods. Contrary to the event-based theory in which it is hypothesized different assets respond differently to different economic and political events, empirical studies show that different assets do in fact share some generalizable, qualitative statistical properties. Volatility models should thus seek to capture these features of asset returns and volatility so as to enhance the forecasting process; herein lays the challenge. (Cont, 2001; Bollerslev et al 1994) Presented are some of these stylized facts, along with their corresponding empirical studies that have contributed to the evolving literature aimed at improving volatility-forecasting practices and which this study will also look to capture. Return Distributions Stock Market returns are not normally distributed and it is therefore an unsuitable distribution for modeling returns according to Mandelbrot (1963) and Fama (1965). Returns are approximately symmetrical but can display negative skewness and significantly have leptokurtic features (excess kurtosis with heavier tails and taller, narrower peaks than found in a normal distribution) that see large moves occur with greater frequency than under normal distributions (Sinclair, 2013). Cont (2001) asserts that these large moves in the form of gains and losses are asymmetric by nature with the scale of downward movements in stock index values dwarfing upward movements. He further argues that the introduction of GARCH-type models to counter the effects of volatility clustering can reduce the heaviness of tails in the residual time series to some small extent. However, as GARCH models can at times struggle to fully incorporate heavy-tail features of returns, this has necessitated the use of alte rnative distributions such as the students t-distribution employed in Bollerslev (1987). Alberg et al (2008) employ a skewed version of this distribution to various models with the EGARCH model delivering the best performance in forecasting the volatility of Tel Aviv stock indices. Cont (2001) does however also highlight an important consideration with the notion of aggregational gaussianity that as one increases time scale (t) for calculation of returns, the distribution of returns seems more normally distributed in appearance. Leverage effect/Asymmetric volatility In most markets, volatility and returns are negatively correlated (Cont, 2001). First elucidated by Black (1976) and particularly prevalent for stock indices, Volatility will tend to increase when stock price declines. The justification for this is because a decline in equity stock price will increase a companys debt-to-equity ratio and consequently its risk and volatility (Figlewski and Wang, 2000; Engle and Patton, 2001). Importantly, this relationship is asymmetric, with negative returns having a more marked effect on volatility than positive returns as documented by Christie (1982) and Schwert, (1989). However they also argue that the leverage effect is not enough on its own to explain all of the change in volatility with Christie (1982) incorporating interest rate as another element that has a partial effect. Hence, whilst, ARCH (Engle, 1982) and GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986) models do well to account for volatility clustering and leptokurtosis, their symmetric distribution fails to account for the leverage effect. In response to this, various asymmetric modifications of GARCH have been developed, the most significant of these being Exponential GARCH (EGARCH; Nelson, 1991) and GJR (Glosten et al, 1993). Other models like GARCH-in-Mean have also endeavored to capture the leverage effect along with the risk premium effect, another concept that has been theorized to contribute to volatility asymmetry by studies such as Schwert (1989) (Engle and Patton, 2001). Volatility Distribution The distribution of volatility is taken to be approximately log-normal. Various studies such as Andersen et al (2001) have postulated this. More significantly than the actual distribution is the high positive skewness indicating volatility spends longer in lower states than higher states. (Sinclair, 2013) Volatility-Volume correlation All measures of volatility and trading volume are highly positively correlated (Cont, 2001). Lee and Rui (2002) show this relationship to be foundationally robust, however what is more complex is determining the causality between the two. Strong arguments can be made either way. As an example, Brooks (1998) utilizes linear and non-linear Granger causality tests and finds the relationship to be stronger from volatility to volume than the converse. He concludes by highlighting that for forecasting accuracy, predicting volume using volatility is more productive than forecasting stock index volume and using such forecasts in trading. According to Gallant et al (1992) this relationship is also closely linked with the leverage effect and incorporating lagged volume weakens the effect considerably. Non-Constant Volatility Volatility is not constant. The changing nature of volatility occurs in a particular manner; Merton (1980) was critical of researchers who failed to incorporate this feature in their models. Firstly volatility is mean reverting. Indeed LeBaron (1992) found a strong negative relationship between volatility and autocorrelation for stock indices in the United States. Secondly, Volatility clusters. This is a phenomenon first noted by Mandelbrot (1963) that allows a good estimation of future volatility based on current volatility. Other studies such as Chou (1988) have also empirically shown the existence of clustering. Mandelbrot (1963) wrote, large changes tend to be followed by large changes of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes. In other words, a turbulent day of trading usually comes after another turbulent trading day, whilst a calm period will usually be followed by another calm period. Importantly, the phenomenon is not exclusive to the underlying product and can be seen in stock indices, commodities and currencies. It also tends to be more pronounced in developed than emerging markets. (Taylor, 2008; Sinclair, 2013) Engle and Patton (2001) argue that volatility clustering indicates volatility goes through phases whereby periods of high volatility eventually give way to more normal volatility with the contrary also holding. Engles (1982) landmark paper incorporated these features of volatility persistence using his ARCH model, whereby time varying, non-constant volatility that persists in high or low states is taken account of.
Sunday, January 19, 2020
Emerging Markets; Risks and Challenges
Trade among these countries has also grown by a staggering amount in recent years and their multinational companies are now competing with those from the developed economies. There remain, however, significant risks and challenges to investing in these countries. They are discussed here under these broad headings; Political, Economic, Legal and Socio cultural. They affect the different countries in deferent ways and sometimes Interact in deferent ways to produce deferent results. For example, political processes more often than not drive economic, legal and social policies of governments.China and India, two of the largest emerging markets operate very different political processes and therefore have two very different sets of political institutions. Chinese communism and Indian democracy vary significantly, and their political systems ultimately affect the choice of economic, legal and social policies. The first step to emerging market status for most of these countries can be trace d to political reforms and/or movements, examples being the transition from authoritarian to democratic governments and economic liberation's.It can also be argued that social reforms and/or popular movements brought about the downfall of the authoritarian governments in the first place, allowing for reforms in the political and economic systems In place (the political economy), thus paving the way for economic gains witnessed today. Despite the often complex interactions between these factors, wave attempted to simplify them by grouping them In broad categories. Emerging markets also face challenges as they come to grips with economic prosperity and their new status in the global community.
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